Reading the Weather Before You Head Out

The Bureau of Meteorology provides detailed forecasts for every part of Australia and the data quality is genuinely good. Most outdoor accidents related to weather happen when people did not check the forecast properly, checked it but did not understand what they were reading, or knew the weather was marginal and went anyway. Knowing what to look for and how to interpret it is a practical skill.

The Standard Forecast

The standard BOM area forecast gives daily summaries including temperature range, precipitation chance, wind strength and direction, and general conditions. For walking, the most important factors are maximum temperature, wind at altitude, and the chance and timing of rain. A 20 percent chance of rain means something different to a 70 percent chance.

Mountain Forecasts

The BOM produces specific mountain forecasts for alpine areas including the Snowy Mountains, Blue Mountains, and Victorian Alps. These include summit temperatures, wind at altitude, and snow level. A day that looks mild at valley level can be cold, windy, and wet at 1500m. For any walk with significant elevation, check the mountain or alpine forecast rather than the town forecast below.

Reading Synoptic Charts

Synoptic charts show the large-scale pressure systems that drive weather. A low pressure system approaching from the south or west typically brings deteriorating conditions. A high over the region generally means settled weather. Frontal systems on the chart show where significant weather changes will occur. You do not need to be a meteorologist to read a synoptic chart at a basic level, and the BOM website explains the symbols clearly.

When to Cancel

Having clear criteria for when you will not go before you make the decision removes the pressure of calling it off when the group is ready and excited. Decide in advance that you will not proceed if, for example, winds exceed a certain speed on the summit forecast, or if there is more than a 60 percent chance of electrical storms. This makes the call easier and more defensible to the group.